offered £102 April today so I snapped his hand off quick
a safe mill and we buy a lot of cake from there

rogerm wrote:

offered £102 April today so I snapped his hand off quick a safe mill and we buy a lot of cake from there :wink:

I don't think you will be far wrong. And as I said earlier but for clarity. It ain't going to get much better in the physical market price for next 2 years harvests.

SJP wrote:

rogerm wrote: offered £102 April today so I snapped his hand off quick a safe mill and we buy a lot of cake from there I don't think you will be far wrong. And as I said earlier but for clarity. It ain't going to get much better in the physical market price for next 2 years harvests.

I concur, thats my current opinion too:cry: altho I reserve the right to change my mind!
(I should have sold forward,but I know you don't favour doing that- what to do? Still have approx 300t F wheat to sell, thankfully 60% of next year in a Pool so we'll see)

simpleton wrote:

SJP wrote: rogerm wrote: offered £102 April today so I snapped his hand off quick a safe mill and we buy a lot of cake from there :wink: I don't think you will be far wrong. And as I said earlier but for clarity. It ain't going to get much better in the physical market price for next 2 years harvests. I concur, thats my current opinion too:cry: altho I reserve the right to change my mind! (I should have sold forward,but I know you don't favour doing that- what to do? Still have approx 300t F wheat to sell, thankfully 60% of next year in a Pool so we'll see)

depending on your wish or need for cash. I would move to get shot. Might be a bump on your theory/virtual market with fund investors. Still reckon cash is king, always have.

Rather have cheap fert in the shed now than last harvests wheat. Yes there is a downside to my way you get to learn to live and farm within what you earn. Not borrowed money.

So without a credit card I am limited to what I can do in some places in the world. Try pricing diesel at harvest and what it is now and will be in spring. Again harvest sales means covered untill harvest 2010.

Sentry farming conference heard that grain prices will dramatically increase before long.

That was the good news; a merchant told me that he had bought March oats @ £55. Barley going into Intervention like its going out of fashion ( it is, last season before its scrapped )

Its getting worse - £90 ex May today. New crop don't look sharp either, ind £94 ex Nov, must spend more on fungicide then.

simpleton wrote:

Its getting worse - £90 ex May today. New crop don't look sharp either, ind £94 ex Nov, must spend more on fungicide then.

If it is milling wheat then maybe keep quality by spending. If feed you ain't yet started to spend money on fert and agchems. Maybe choose to spend less.

Remain convinced that prices of combinable crops will not move more than 15% over next two years. Which on 90 pound wheat is up to 103 spot and down to 76 spot. Rape, beans suns, maize, soya same.

Eek, market going to take a tumble. Very bearish American end stocks report out today by all accounts showing huge carryover stocks (up 60% over 2 years).
Hold on to your hats everyone dont think its worth chasing that last extra yield this spring..

simpleton wrote:

Eek, market going to take a tumble. Very bearish American end stocks report out today by all accounts showing huge carryover stocks (up 60% over 2 years). Hold on to your hats everyone dont think its worth chasing that last extra yield this spring..

Don't say we didn't say so last harvest. But from what I understand on agric tineternet UK farms still have a lot of last harvest to sell. Sorry.

i note that N14 doesnt even grow wheat - cant make a profit at it. what is the ethanol market doing to reduce stocks? Not that long ago everyone was panicking that there wouldnt be enough wheat to make biscuits and bread. now there is too much around, you would think the industrial market would be mopping stocks up........

Hmmm still have 300 t of last harvest to sell and after a grain meeting today not as much sold forward as I had wished . Still at least we have a resonable amount sold forwards at a price that should see a profit

Fat Hill wrote:

i note that N14 doesnt even grow wheat - cant make a profit at it. what is the ethanol market doing to reduce stocks? Not that long ago everyone was panicking that there wouldnt be enough wheat to make biscuits and bread. now there is too much around, you would think the industrial market would be mopping stocks up........

I think/guess you have to look at it like this. Wheat is not the number 1 crop in the world. And of wheat there is that suitable for animal food. Which maize can do. And wheat for biscuits and flat bread much most of world. Then there is wheat for making fluffy bread as in much of Europe USA English speaking world.

Ethanol can come from Maize or wheat and I am sure lots of other things. Certainly rye and Barley. Now the ehtanol makers need high oil prices let us say over $70 a barrel. Then the ethanol biz in USA gets a lot of help, so that uses lot of maize.

We maybe like N14 can grow a darn sight more maize per acre than we can wheat. So wheat is poor relation on farm. Also and I hate saying it. Too many people are stuck with idea of growing big yeilds of barn filling feed wheat to get cost per tonne figures down that there is too much of it. So price drops. The other thing I think is that not enough people have taken on board the fact that there are a darn sight less animals eating. As Europe has too much milk and other things etc. Or can get it somewhere else.

And the trade out of UK to rest of Europe for feed is not exactly growing. And the feed wheat can't be sold to Egypt for example for making their flat bread. But French can as no feed really grown this side of channel.

Just some jottings Bongo.

I see. so what you are saying is there is too much bog standard feed wheat, for which there is no home. For starters the UK pig herd is down about 35-40% on where it was in the late 80's/early 90's - one of the biggest users of standard feed wheat. poultry industry is bigger but not using as much wheat as pigs. Ethanol as you say comes from many sources - BS now growing their own beet for ethanol production at Wissington



The UK sugar
business opened
the first bioethanol production facility
in the UK in 2007, alongside its Wissington sugar factory.

This plant produces 70 million litres of bioethanol per year. The Group is also involved in a Joint Venture with BP and DuPont to build and operate a world scale bioethanol facility in Hull. This is now under construction and is due to come on stream in 2010. Operating as Vivergo Fuels Limited, it will produce around 420 million litres of bioethanol from wheat each year.

Fat Hill wrote:

I see. so what you are saying is there is too much bog standard feed wheat, for which there is no home. For starters the UK pig herd is down about 35-40% on where it was in the late 80's/early 90's - one of the biggest users of standard feed wheat. poultry industry is bigger but not using as much wheat as pigs. Ethanol as you say comes from many sources - BS now growing their own beet for ethanol production at Wissington The UK sugar business opened the first bioethanol production facility in the UK in 2007, alongside its Wissington sugar factory. This plant produces 70 million litres of bioethanol per year. The Group is also involved in a Joint Venture with BP and DuPont to build and operate a world scale bioethanol facility in Hull. This is now under construction and is due to come on stream in 2010. Operating as Vivergo Fuels Limited, it will produce around 420 million litres of bioethanol from wheat each year.

Both the new one already opened a couple of months ago and the one above. Are sited to take advantage of cheapest source of product. So efectively UK ethanol has effect of reducing prices of Uk own wheat to level of cheapest that can be shipped in.

Not quite on topic, but I started it, so there

I hear the big boys are getting bigger-
Isle of Wight Grain co op throwing their lot in with Frontier
And, closer to home, AtlasFram giving their grain trading to Openfield.

Good thing, bad thing?